Basel II vs Grand-Saconnex Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Basel II and 1.83 for Grand-Saconnex, a combined total of 3.57. That distribution gives Grand-Saconnex the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

63.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.73 – 1.83

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Basel II home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Grand-Saconnex away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Grand-Saconnex to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 37% / 22% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for Basel II and 1.83 for Grand-Saconnex, a combined 3.57 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Basel II win37%

Draw22%

Grand-Saconnex win41%

Double chance 1X

59%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals69%

Over 3.5 goals48%

Both teams to score69%

Correct score

1–19.0%
1–28.2%
2–17.8%
2–27.1%
0–15.2%

Recent form

Basel II

2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bavois · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Biel-Bienne · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Luzern II · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Young Boys II · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bulle · 1-2 (L)

Grand-Saconnex

2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lugano II · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brühl · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs YF Juventus · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Zürich II · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bellinzona · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1. Liga Promotion table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Biel-Bienne	11	8	2	1	13	26
2	FC Schaffhausen	11	8	1	2	16	25
3	Bulle	12	7	3	2	9	24
4	Paradiso	13	7	3	3	12	24
5	Cham	11	7	1	3	5	22
6	Grand-Saconnex	12	7	0	5	7	21
7	Basel II	13	6	1	6	0	19
8	YF Juventus	13	6	1	6	-1	19
9	Amical Saint-Prex	13	6	1	6	-7	19
10	Zürich II	13	5	3	5	-1	18
11	Breitenrain	13	5	3	5	-1	18
12	Brühl	13	5	2	6	-2	17
13	Kreuzlingen	12	4	3	5	0	15
14	Lugano II	12	4	0	8	-7	12
15	Young Boys II	12	3	3	6	-9	12
16	Bavois	12	2	2	8	-6	8
17	Bellinzona	12	2	2	8	-15	8
18	Luzern II	12	2	1	9	-13	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.