Leichtathletik Stadion St. jakob · Analysis updated 09:12 UTC
Basel W vs St. Gallen W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.38 expected goals for Basel W and 1.00 for St. Gallen W, a combined total of 3.38. That distribution gives Basel W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Basel W win
67.9% probability
Expected goals
2.38 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Basel W home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
St. Gallen W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–09.7%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.1%
- 1–18.1%
- 3–07.6%
Recent form
Basel W
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Aarau W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Yverdon W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rapperswil Jona W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Zürich W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Grasshopper W · 1-1 (D)
St. Gallen W
- 2026-10-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Zürich W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Servette Chênois W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Grasshopper W · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Young Boys W · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Aarau W · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-01T17:00:00.000Z · Basel W 1-0 St. Gallen W (AXA Women’s Super League)
- 2026-04-25T16:00:00.000Z · Basel W 0-1 St. Gallen W (AXA Women’s Super League)
- 2026-03-18T17:00:00.000Z · Basel W 3-0 St. Gallen W (AXA Women’s Super League)
- 2025-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · Basel W 1-1 St. Gallen W (AXA Women’s Super League)
- 2025-03-16T17:00:00.000Z · Basel W 1-1 St. Gallen W (AXA Women’s Super League)
- 2024-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · Basel W 2-1 St. Gallen W (AXA Women’s Super League)
- 2024-05-04T16:00:00.000Z · Basel W 3-0 St. Gallen W (AXA Women’s Super League)
- 2024-04-28T12:00:00.000Z · Basel W 1-1 St. Gallen W (AXA Women’s Super League)
- 2024-02-03T14:00:00.000Z · Basel W 1-1 St. Gallen W (AXA Women’s Super League)
- 2023-09-02T15:15:00.000Z · Basel W 1-1 St. Gallen W (AXA Women’s Super League)
AXA Women’s Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Servette Chênois W | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 22 |
| 2 | Zürich W | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 18 |
| 3 | Young Boys W | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | Grasshopper W | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 17 |
| 5 | Basel W | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | Luzern W | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | Rapperswil Jona W | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 8 | Yverdon W | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 8 |
| 9 | St. Gallen W | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 4 |
| 10 | Aarau W | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -21 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Basel W win, at 67.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.