· Analysis updated 07:44 UTC
Basford United vs Bedworth United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Basford United and 1.45 for Bedworth United, a combined total of 2.89. That distribution gives Bedworth United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
62.6% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Basford United home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bedworth United away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bedworth United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 37% / 25% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Basford United and 1.45 for Bedworth United, a combined 2.89 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–18.3%
- 0–18.1%
- 1–08.0%
Recent form
Basford United
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Halesowen Town · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bedworth United · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Heaton Stannington · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-28T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Ilkeston Town · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-07-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Gainsborough Trinity · 1-1 (D)
Bedworth United
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Redditch United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Boldmere St. Michaels · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Coventry United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Basford United · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-21T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bromsgrove Sporting · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.