· Analysis updated 02:02 UTC
Bashkimi Kumanovo vs Makedonija GjP Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Bashkimi Kumanovo and 1.91 for Makedonija GjP, a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives Makedonija GjP the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Makedonija GjP win
49.7% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.91
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bashkimi Kumanovo home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Makedonija GjP away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Makedonija GjP to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 28% / 22% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Bashkimi Kumanovo and 1.91 for Makedonija GjP, a combined 3.30 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.8%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–17.0%
- 2–16.8%
- 0–26.7%
Recent form
Bashkimi Kumanovo
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tikveš · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Sileks · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Struga · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gjilani · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Drita · 1-1 (D)
Makedonija GjP
- 2026-09-19T13:45:00.000Z · H vs FK Rabotnicki · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kamjani · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Akademija Pandev · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Velazerimi 77 · 14-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Pelister · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shkendija | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 24 |
| 2 | Struga | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 23 |
| 3 | Vardar Skopje | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 21 |
| 4 | Tikveš | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 15 | 20 |
| 5 | Sileks | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 16 |
| 6 | Shkëndija Haraçinë | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 14 |
| 7 | Bregalnica Štip | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 13 |
| 8 | Aresimi | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -14 | 10 |
| 9 | Bashkimi Kumanovo | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -22 | 7 |
| 10 | Skopje | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | -16 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Makedonija GjP win, at 49.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.