· Analysis updated 16:41 UTC
Bashkimi Kumanovo vs Skopje Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.36 expected goals for Bashkimi Kumanovo and 1.21 for Skopje, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Bashkimi Kumanovo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.7% probability
Expected goals
1.36 – 1.21
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bashkimi Kumanovo home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Skopje away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bashkimi Kumanovo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 26% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.36 goals for Bashkimi Kumanovo and 1.21 for Skopje, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 1–010.4%
- 0–19.2%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–27.6%
Recent form
Bashkimi Kumanovo
- 2026-10-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Struga · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gjilani · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Drita · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Shkendija · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vardar Skopje · 3-3 (D)
Skopje
- 2026-09-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bregalnica Štip · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-14T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Shkëndija Haraçinë · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kozuv Gevgelija · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Bashkimi Kumanovo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Aresimi · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shkendija | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 20 |
| 2 | Struga | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 17 |
| 3 | Vardar Skopje | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 4 | Tikveš | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 16 |
| 5 | Shkëndija Haraçinë | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 14 |
| 6 | Sileks | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | Bregalnica Štip | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 8 | Aresimi | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -13 | 9 |
| 9 | Bashkimi Kumanovo | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -17 | 7 |
| 10 | Skopje | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.