· Analysis updated 10:39 UTC
Bashkimi Kumanovo vs Struga Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.74 expected goals for Bashkimi Kumanovo and 3.25 for Struga, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Struga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 85%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 85% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Struga win
84.9% probability
Expected goals
0.74 – 3.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bashkimi Kumanovo home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Struga away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Struga to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 85%, against 5% / 10% / 85% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.74 goals for Bashkimi Kumanovo and 3.25 for Struga, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
15%
Double chance 12
90%
Double chance X2
95%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–310.6%
- 0–29.7%
- 0–48.6%
- 1–37.8%
- 1–27.2%
Recent form
Bashkimi Kumanovo
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tikveš · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Sileks · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Struga · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gjilani · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Drita · 1-1 (D)
Struga
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Shkëndija Haraçinë · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bashkimi Kumanovo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Aresimi · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tikveš · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-07T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sileks · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shkendija | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 24 |
| 2 | Struga | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 23 |
| 3 | Vardar Skopje | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 21 |
| 4 | Tikveš | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 15 | 20 |
| 5 | Sileks | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 16 |
| 6 | Shkëndija Haraçinë | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 14 |
| 7 | Bregalnica Štip | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 13 |
| 8 | Aresimi | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -14 | 10 |
| 9 | Bashkimi Kumanovo | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -22 | 7 |
| 10 | Skopje | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | -16 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Struga win, at 84.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 85% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.