KF Bashkimi Stadium 1947 · Analysis updated 15:44 UTC
Bashkimi Kumanovo vs Tikveš Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Bashkimi Kumanovo and 2.96 for Tikveš, a combined total of 3.81. That distribution gives Tikveš the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tikveš win
79.7% probability
Expected goals
0.85 – 2.96
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bashkimi Kumanovo home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Tikveš away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
20%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
92%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–29.7%
- 0–39.5%
- 1–28.3%
- 1–38.1%
- 0–47.1%
Recent form
Bashkimi Kumanovo
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Sileks · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Struga · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gjilani · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Drita · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Shkendija · 1-4 (L)
Tikveš
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sileks · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Struga · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Shkendija · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-31T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Vardar Skopje · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-21T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Skopje · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · Bashkimi Kumanovo 0-5 Tikveš (First League)
- 2026-04-02T10:30:00.000Z · Bashkimi Kumanovo 2-2 Tikveš (First League)
- 2026-01-16T12:00:00.000Z · Bashkimi Kumanovo 2-0 Tikveš (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-11-23T12:00:00.000Z · Bashkimi Kumanovo 0-3 Tikveš (First League)
- 2025-08-25T15:00:00.000Z · Bashkimi Kumanovo 3-1 Tikveš (First League)
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shkendija | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 24 |
| 2 | Struga | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 23 |
| 3 | Vardar Skopje | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 21 |
| 4 | Tikveš | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 13 | 17 |
| 5 | Sileks | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 16 |
| 6 | Shkëndija Haraçinë | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 14 |
| 7 | Bregalnica Štip | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | Aresimi | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -13 | 10 |
| 9 | Bashkimi Kumanovo | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 7 |
| 10 | Skopje | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | -16 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tikveš win, at 79.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.