KF Bashkimi Stadium · Analysis updated 06:43 UTC
Bashkimi Kumanovo vs Vardar Skopje Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.68 expected goals for Bashkimi Kumanovo and 2.48 for Vardar Skopje, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Vardar Skopje the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vardar Skopje win
76.8% probability
Expected goals
0.68 – 2.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bashkimi Kumanovo home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Vardar Skopje away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vardar Skopje to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 8% / 15% / 77% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.68 goals for Bashkimi Kumanovo and 2.48 for Vardar Skopje, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
23%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
92%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–213.1%
- 0–310.8%
- 0–110.6%
- 1–28.9%
- 1–37.3%
Recent form
Bashkimi Kumanovo
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tikveš · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Sileks · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Struga · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gjilani · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Drita · 1-1 (D)
Vardar Skopje
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Shkendija · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bregalnica Štip · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Skopje · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Shkëndija Haraçinë · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bashkimi Kumanovo · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shkendija | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 24 |
| 2 | Struga | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 23 |
| 3 | Vardar Skopje | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 21 |
| 4 | Tikveš | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 15 | 20 |
| 5 | Sileks | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 16 |
| 6 | Shkëndija Haraçinë | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 14 |
| 7 | Bregalnica Štip | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 13 |
| 8 | Aresimi | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -14 | 10 |
| 9 | Bashkimi Kumanovo | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -22 | 7 |
| 10 | Skopje | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | -16 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vardar Skopje win, at 76.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.