Winklebury Football Complex · Analysis updated 03:05 UTC
Basingstoke Town vs Dorchester Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Basingstoke Town and 1.83 for Dorchester Town, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Dorchester Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dorchester Town win
49.8% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Basingstoke Town home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Dorchester Town away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–18.0%
- 0–27.3%
- 2–16.8%
Recent form
Basingstoke Town
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Plymouth Parkway · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gosport Borough · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Havant & Wville · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Malvern Town · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Uxbridge · 1-2 (L)
Dorchester Town
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Oxford City · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brixham · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Larkhall Athletic · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sholing · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hungerford Town · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-14T15:00:00.000Z · Basingstoke Town 1-1 Dorchester Town (Non League Premier - Southern South)
- 2025-10-28T19:45:00.000Z · Basingstoke Town 1-1 Dorchester Town (FA Trophy)
- 2025-10-21T18:45:00.000Z · Basingstoke Town 0-1 Dorchester Town (Non League Premier - Southern South)
- 2024-12-28T15:00:00.000Z · Basingstoke Town 2-3 Dorchester Town (Non League Premier - Southern South)
- 2024-08-17T14:00:00.000Z · Basingstoke Town 2-0 Dorchester Town (Non League Premier - Southern South)
- 2024-04-20T14:00:00.000Z · Basingstoke Town 3-1 Dorchester Town (Non League Premier - Southern South)
- 2023-11-11T15:00:00.000Z · Basingstoke Town 1-4 Dorchester Town (Non League Premier - Southern South)
- 2017-10-28T14:00:00.000Z · Basingstoke Town 1-2 Dorchester Town (FA Trophy)
- 2016-11-12T15:00:00.000Z · Basingstoke Town 3-0 Dorchester Town (FA Trophy)
- 2012-10-06T14:00:00.000Z · Basingstoke Town 0-1 Dorchester Town (FA Cup)
Non League Premier - Southern South table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Poole Town | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 27 |
| 2 | Uxbridge | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 26 |
| 3 | Bath City | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 26 |
| 4 | Hanworth Villa | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 24 |
| 5 | Plymouth Parkway | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 23 |
| 6 | Chichester City | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 22 |
| 7 | Taunton Town | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 19 |
| 8 | Chertsey Town | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 19 |
| 9 | Frome Town | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 |
| 10 | Wimborne Town | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 18 |
| 11 | Gosport Borough | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 12 | Berkhamsted | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 16 |
| 13 | Basingstoke Town | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 15 |
| 14 | Bracknell Town | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 14 |
| 15 | Yate Town | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -9 | 13 |
| 16 | Evesham United | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -11 | 13 |
| 17 | Sholing | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 18 | Hanwell Town | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 19 | Malvern Town | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -15 | 11 |
| 20 | Gloucester City | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 21 | Havant & Wville | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -8 | 9 |
| 22 | Chippenham Town | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dorchester Town win, at 49.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.