Basingstoke Town vs Uxbridge Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Basingstoke Town and 1.78 for Uxbridge, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Uxbridge the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Uxbridge win

49.2% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.28 – 1.78

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Basingstoke Town home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Uxbridge to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 28% / 23% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Basingstoke Town and 1.78 for Uxbridge, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 59% and both teams to score at 60%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Match result (1X2)

Basingstoke Town win28%

Draw23%

Uxbridge win49%

Double chance 1X

51%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

73%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals59%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–110.7%
1–29.5%
0–18.4%
0–27.5%
2–16.8%

Recent form

Basingstoke Town

2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Plymouth Parkway · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gosport Borough · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Havant & Wville · 1-4 (L)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Malvern Town · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Uxbridge · 1-2 (L)

Uxbridge

2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Hornchurch · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Evesham United · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hungerford Town · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Basingstoke Town · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lewes · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Non League Premier - Southern South table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Poole Town	12	9	0	3	9	27
2	Uxbridge	11	8	2	1	15	26
3	Bath City	13	8	2	3	9	26
4	Hanworth Villa	13	7	3	3	10	24
5	Plymouth Parkway	12	7	2	3	12	23
6	Chichester City	13	7	1	5	2	22
7	Taunton Town	12	6	1	5	7	19
8	Chertsey Town	12	5	4	3	7	19
9	Frome Town	13	5	4	4	4	19
10	Wimborne Town	11	5	3	3	11	18
11	Gosport Borough	13	5	3	5	2	18
12	Berkhamsted	12	5	1	6	-2	16
13	Basingstoke Town	13	4	3	6	-4	15
14	Bracknell Town	13	4	2	7	-14	14
15	Yate Town	12	3	4	5	-9	13
16	Evesham United	13	4	1	8	-11	13
17	Sholing	11	3	3	5	-4	12
18	Hanwell Town	11	2	5	4	-4	11
19	Malvern Town	13	3	2	8	-15	11
20	Gloucester City	10	2	4	4	-3	10
21	Havant & Wville	13	2	3	8	-8	9
22	Chippenham Town	12	2	3	7	-14	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Uxbridge win, at 49.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.