Bassin d'Arcachon Sud vs Tarbes Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.27 expected goals for Bassin d'Arcachon Sud and 1.79 for Tarbes, a combined total of 3.06. That distribution gives Tarbes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Tarbes win

49.6% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.27 – 1.79

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Bassin d'Arcachon Sud home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tarbes away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tarbes to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 27% / 23% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.27 goals for Bassin d'Arcachon Sud and 1.79 for Tarbes, a combined 3.06 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Bassin d'Arcachon Sud win27%

Draw23%

Tarbes win50%

Double chance 1X

50%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

73%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals59%

Over 3.5 goals37%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–110.7%
1–29.5%
0–18.4%
0–27.5%
2–16.8%

Recent form

Bassin d'Arcachon Sud

2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Canet Roussillon · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Toulouse II · 2-3 (L)
2026-04-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs SAG Cestas · 2-2 (D)
2026-04-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Agde · 3-0 (W)
2026-04-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Colomiers · 0-2 (L)

Tarbes

2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinan Léhon · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Les Herbiers · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Angoulême · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Châteaubriant · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lorient II · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

National 3 - Group A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tarbes	26	14	8	4	26	47
2	Canet Roussillon	26	12	9	5	15	45
3	Colomiers	26	13	6	7	5	43
4	Onet-le-Château	26	11	6	9	0	39
5	Pau II	26	10	7	9	6	37
6	Anglet Genets	26	12	7	7	13	37
7	Bassin d'Arcachon Sud	26	9	9	8	2	36
8	Toulouse II	26	9	6	11	4	33
9	Castanet	26	8	8	10	-5	32
10	Blagnac	26	8	8	10	1	29
11	Lège-Cap-Ferret	26	6	10	10	-15	28
12	SAG Cestas	26	6	10	10	-16	28
13	Agde	26	6	6	14	-20	24
14	Alberes Argelès	26	5	6	15	-16	21

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Tarbes win, at 49.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.