Stade Paul-Antoniotti · Analysis updated 09:25 UTC
Bastia-Borgo vs Racing Colombes 92 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Bastia-Borgo and 1.70 for Racing Colombes 92, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Racing Colombes 92 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Racing Colombes 92 win
52.0% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bastia-Borgo home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Racing Colombes 92 away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Racing Colombes 92 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 24% / 24% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for Bastia-Borgo and 1.70 for Racing Colombes 92, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 0–110.6%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–29.0%
- 1–06.7%
Recent form
Bastia-Borgo
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs St Maur Lusitanos · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Haguenau · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Racing Colombes 92 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Chambly Thelle FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Le Pays du Valois · 1-1 (D)
Racing Colombes 92
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Colmar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs St Maur Lusitanos · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bastia-Borgo · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Haguenau · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Chambly Thelle FC · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · Bastia-Borgo 1-3 Racing Colombes 92 (National 2 - Group A)
- 2024-05-18T16:00:00.000Z · Bastia-Borgo 3-4 Racing Colombes 92 (National 2 - Group C)
- 2023-08-26T15:30:00.000Z · Bastia-Borgo 1-2 Racing Colombes 92 (National 2 - Group C)
National 2 - Group A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St Maur Lusitanos | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 15 |
| 2 | Chambly Thelle FC | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 3 | Creteil | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Racing Colombes 92 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Furiani-Agliani | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 6 | Feignies-Aulnoye | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Biesheim | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 8 | Dieppe | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 | Le Pays du Valois | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
| 10 | Bastia-Borgo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Haguenau | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Montlouis | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 6 |
| 13 | Epinal | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Colmar | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
| 15 | St-Pryvé St-Hilaire | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | Chantilly | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -15 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Racing Colombes 92 win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.