Stade Armand Cesari · Analysis updated 13:30 UTC
Bastia vs Cannes Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.94 expected goals for Bastia and 1.01 for Cannes, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Cannes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.5% probability
Expected goals
0.94 – 1.01
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bastia home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cannes away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cannes to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 33% / 31% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.94 goals for Bastia and 1.01 for Cannes, a combined 1.95 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.4%
- 0–014.2%
- 1–113.5%
- 1–013.4%
- 0–27.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.91 (model 61.3% vs market 47.8%, edge +13.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.91 | 47.8% | 61.3% | 1.63 | +13.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.50 | 61.9% | 63.8% | 1.57 | +1.9 |
| Match result | Away | 2.45 | 35.9% | 36.2% | 2.76 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Home | 2.70 | 32.6% | 32.5% | 3.08 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.80 | 31.4% | 31.3% | 3.19 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.36 | 68.3% | 67.5% | 1.48 | -0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 69.8% | 68.7% | 1.46 | -1.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 52.2% | 38.7% | 2.58 | -13.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Bastia
- 2026-10-01T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Orleans · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Gobelins · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-17T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cannes · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Bourg-en-bresse 01 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Amiens · 0-3 (L)
Cannes
- 2026-10-03T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Quevilly · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Orleans · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-17T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Bastia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-10T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Amiens · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Versailles · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-17T18:45:00.000Z · Bastia 1-1 Cannes (Ligue 3)
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Roche VF | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 21 |
| 2 | Rouen | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 20 |
| 3 | Concarneau | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 4 | Versailles | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 5 | Amiens | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 15 |
| 6 | Cannes | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 15 |
| 7 | Caen | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 15 |
| 8 | Le Puy Foot | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 9 | Thionville Lusitanos | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Fleury 91 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 11 | Gobelins | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 | Bastia | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 13 | Quevilly | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 | Orleans | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 | Valenciennes | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 16 | Aubagne | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 7 |
| 17 | Bourg-en-bresse 01 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 5 |
| 18 | Villefranche | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -15 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.