Stade Armand Cesari · Analysis updated 12:17 UTC
Bastia vs Versailles Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Bastia and 1.25 for Versailles, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Versailles the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.5% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.2%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–010.5%
- 1–010.5%
- 0–28.2%
Why the model likes this
Versailles away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Versailles to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 30% / 29% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Bastia and 1.25 for Versailles, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 39% and both teams to score at 45%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Recent form
Bastia
Versailles
- 2026-08-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Le Puy Foot · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-07T18:45:00.000Z · A vs La Roche VF · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-07-25T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Fleury 91 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Le Mans · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Metz · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thionville Lusitanos | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | La Roche VF | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Rouen | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Caen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Villefranche | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Le Puy Foot | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Versailles | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Bourg-en-bresse 01 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 9 | Valenciennes | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 10 | Orleans | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Bastia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 12 | Gobelins | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | Cannes | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 14 | Fleury 91 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 15 | Quevilly | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 16 | Concarneau | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 17 | Amiens | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 18 | Aubagne | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.