Borisov Arena · Analysis updated 10:34 UTC
Bate Borisov vs FC Isloch Minsk R. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.63 expected goals for Bate Borisov and 1.63 for FC Isloch Minsk R., a combined total of 2.26. That distribution gives FC Isloch Minsk R. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
FC Isloch Minsk R. win
61.5% probability
Expected goals
0.63 – 1.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bate Borisov home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Isloch Minsk R. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 14% / 24% / 62% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.63 goals for Bate Borisov and 1.63 for FC Isloch Minsk R., a combined 2.26 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 39% and both teams to score at 38%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
39%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
86%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–117.0%
- 0–213.8%
- 1–110.7%
- 0–010.5%
- 1–28.7%
Recent form
Bate Borisov
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Slavia Mozyr · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Zenit · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Minsk · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Naftan · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-07T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Brest · 0-1 (L)
FC Isloch Minsk R.
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Minsk · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Vitebsk · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Neman · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Gomel · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-07T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ML Vitebsk | 25 | 16 | 8 | 1 | 34 | 56 |
| 2 | Dinamo Minsk | 25 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 27 | 55 |
| 3 | FC Isloch Minsk R. | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 27 | 52 |
| 4 | Dinamo Brest | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 44 |
| 5 | Neman | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 43 |
| 6 | FC Vitebsk | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 40 |
| 7 | FC Gomel | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 40 |
| 8 | FC Minsk | 26 | 10 | 4 | 12 | -3 | 34 |
| 9 | Torpedo Zhodino | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | -1 | 33 |
| 10 | Slavia Mozyr | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 28 |
| 11 | Baranovichi | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | -16 | 28 |
| 12 | Belshina | 25 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -18 | 24 |
| 13 | Arsenal | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | -20 | 23 |
| 14 | Bate Borisov | 26 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -14 | 21 |
| 15 | FC Dnepr Mogilev | 25 | 3 | 10 | 12 | -16 | 19 |
| 16 | Naftan | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | -38 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Isloch Minsk R. win, at 61.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.