Baunatal vs Friedberg Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Baunatal and 1.42 for Friedberg, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Friedberg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Friedberg win

46.8% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.00 – 1.42

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Baunatal home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Friedberg away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Friedberg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 27% / 27% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Baunatal and 1.42 for Friedberg, a combined 2.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Baunatal win27%

Draw27%

Friedberg win47%

Double chance 1X

53%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

74%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

0–112.6%
1–112.6%
0–29.0%
1–29.0%
0–08.8%

Recent form

Baunatal

2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hünfelder SV · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayern Alzenau · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Stadtallendorf · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Kassel · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · A vs TuBa Pohlheim · 3-2 (W)

Friedberg

2026-09-05T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Darmstadt 98 II · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Baunatal · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hadamar · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kassel · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-12T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Eddersheim · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Hessen table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Eintracht Stadtallendorf	15	10	3	2	30	33
2	Unter-Flockenbach	15	10	2	3	15	32
3	Friedberg	15	8	3	4	10	27
4	Hadamar	15	8	3	4	8	27
5	Eddersheim	15	7	4	4	2	25
6	Darmstadt 98 II	15	7	3	5	16	24
7	TuBa Pohlheim	14	7	2	5	0	23
8	Fernwald	15	4	9	2	4	21
9	Vfb Marburg	15	6	3	6	-2	21
10	Rot-Weiß Walldorf	15	6	2	7	-7	20
11	Hünfelder SV	14	6	1	7	-1	19
12	Kassel	14	5	3	6	-10	18
13	Bayern Alzenau	15	4	5	6	-3	17
14	Baunatal	15	4	4	7	-7	16
15	1960 Hanau	15	3	4	8	-14	13
16	Hummetroth	14	3	3	8	-8	12
17	Kassel 2	15	3	3	9	-12	12
18	FC Gießen	15	2	3	10	-21	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Friedberg win, at 46.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.