· Analysis updated 08:11 UTC
Bavois vs Amical Saint-Prex Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Bavois and 1.20 for Amical Saint-Prex, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Bavois the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bavois win
52.0% probability
Expected goals
1.83 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bavois home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Amical Saint-Prex away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bavois to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 23% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.83 goals for Bavois and 1.20 for Amical Saint-Prex, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.9%
- 2–08.1%
- 1–26.4%
Recent form
Bavois
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Amical Saint-Prex · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Breitenrain · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Biel-Bienne · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Luzern II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Young Boys II · 1-2 (L)
Amical Saint-Prex
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Biel-Bienne · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Luzern II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Young Boys II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Bulle · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Lugano II · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Liga Promotion table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Biel-Bienne | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 26 |
| 2 | FC Schaffhausen | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 25 |
| 3 | Bulle | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 24 |
| 4 | Paradiso | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 24 |
| 5 | Cham | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 22 |
| 6 | Grand-Saconnex | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 21 |
| 7 | Basel II | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 19 |
| 8 | YF Juventus | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | -1 | 19 |
| 9 | Amical Saint-Prex | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 19 |
| 10 | Zürich II | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 18 |
| 11 | Breitenrain | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 18 |
| 12 | Brühl | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 17 |
| 13 | Kreuzlingen | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 15 |
| 14 | Lugano II | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | -7 | 12 |
| 15 | Young Boys II | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 12 |
| 16 | Bavois | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 8 |
| 17 | Bellinzona | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -15 | 8 |
| 18 | Luzern II | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -13 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bavois win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.