· Analysis updated 14:33 UTC
Bavois vs Bulle Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Bavois and 1.95 for Bulle, a combined total of 3.22. That distribution gives Bulle the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bulle win
53.1% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bavois home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bulle away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bulle to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 25% / 22% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Bavois and 1.95 for Bulle, a combined 3.22 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–17.8%
- 0–27.6%
- 2–16.3%
Recent form
Bavois
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Amical Saint-Prex · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Breitenrain · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Biel-Bienne · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Luzern II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Young Boys II · 1-2 (L)
Bulle
- 2026-09-26T17:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Schaffhausen · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Basel II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Amical Saint-Prex · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bavois · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Biel-Bienne · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Liga Promotion table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Biel-Bienne | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 26 |
| 2 | FC Schaffhausen | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 25 |
| 3 | Cham | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 22 |
| 4 | Bulle | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 21 |
| 5 | Paradiso | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 20 |
| 6 | YF Juventus | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 19 |
| 7 | Grand-Saconnex | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 18 |
| 8 | Basel II | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 | Amical Saint-Prex | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 16 |
| 10 | Kreuzlingen | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 15 |
| 11 | Zürich II | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 12 | Breitenrain | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 15 |
| 13 | Brühl | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 14 | Young Boys II | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 11 |
| 15 | Lugano II | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -8 | 9 |
| 16 | Bavois | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -4 | 8 |
| 17 | Luzern II | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 7 |
| 18 | Bellinzona | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -17 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bulle win, at 53.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.