Bavois vs Luzern II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.69 expected goals for Bavois and 1.20 for Luzern II, a combined total of 2.89. That distribution gives Bavois the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Bavois win

48.8% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.69 – 1.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Bavois home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Luzern II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bavois to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 24% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.69 goals for Bavois and 1.20 for Luzern II, a combined 2.89 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Bavois win49%

Draw24%

Luzern II win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.3%
2–19.5%
1–09.4%
2–07.9%
1–26.8%

Recent form

Bavois

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Amical Saint-Prex · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Breitenrain · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Biel-Bienne · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Luzern II · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Young Boys II · 1-2 (L)

Luzern II

2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Basel II · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Amical Saint-Prex · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bavois · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Biel-Bienne · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Breitenrain · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1. Liga Promotion table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Biel-Bienne	11	8	2	1	13	26
2	FC Schaffhausen	11	8	1	2	16	25
3	Cham	11	7	1	3	5	22
4	Bulle	11	6	3	2	8	21
5	Paradiso	12	6	3	3	11	21
6	Grand-Saconnex	12	7	0	5	7	21
7	Basel II	12	6	1	5	2	19
8	Zürich II	12	5	3	4	1	18
9	Breitenrain	12	5	3	4	1	18
10	YF Juventus	12	5	1	6	-3	16
11	Amical Saint-Prex	12	5	1	6	-9	16
12	Kreuzlingen	11	4	3	4	1	15
13	Brühl	11	4	2	5	-2	14
14	Lugano II	12	4	0	8	-7	12
15	Young Boys II	12	3	3	6	-9	12
16	Bavois	12	2	2	8	-6	8
17	Luzern II	11	2	1	8	-12	7
18	Bellinzona	11	1	2	8	-17	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Bavois win, at 48.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.