Bay FC W vs Kansas City W Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Bay FC W and 1.76 for Kansas City W, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Kansas City W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Kansas City W win

50.9% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.18 – 1.76

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Bay FC W home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kansas City W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Bay FC W win26%

Draw24%

Kansas City W win51%

Double chance 1X

49%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

74%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.0%
1–29.7%
0–19.3%
0–28.2%
2–16.5%

Recent form

Bay FC W

2026-10-25T00:45:00.000Z · A vs Angel City W · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-18T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Portland Thorns W · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-03T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Kansas City W · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-27T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Orlando Pride W · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-20T23:05:00.000Z · H vs Racing Louisville W · 2-0 (W)

Kansas City W

2026-10-17T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Utah Royals W · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-03T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Bay FC W · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-26T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Denver Summit W · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-19T02:10:00.000Z · A vs San Diego Wave W · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-12T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Orlando Pride W · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-10-03T22:30:00.000Z · Bay FC W 1-5 Kansas City W (NWSL Women)
2026-09-05T02:00:00.000Z · Bay FC W 1-2 Kansas City W (NWSL Women)
2025-09-07T02:00:00.000Z · Bay FC W 0-2 Kansas City W (NWSL Women)
2025-05-11T16:50:00.000Z · Bay FC W 1-4 Kansas City W (NWSL Women)
2024-10-13T02:00:00.000Z · Bay FC W 0-1 Kansas City W (NWSL Women)
2024-04-20T23:30:00.000Z · Bay FC W 2-5 Kansas City W (NWSL Women)

NWSL Women table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	NJ/NY Gotham FC W	29	17	7	5	14	58
2	San Diego Wave W	28	17	3	8	13	54
3	Washington Spirit W	28	16	4	8	14	52
4	Angel City W	29	14	7	8	19	49
5	Kansas City W	28	14	5	9	12	47
6	Utah Royals W	29	14	5	10	7	47
7	Portland Thorns W	29	13	8	8	7	47
8	Seattle Reign FC W	29	13	5	11	3	44
9	North Carolina Courage W	29	13	3	13	9	42
10	Denver Summit W	29	11	8	10	12	41
11	Orlando Pride W	29	11	3	15	-7	36
12	Houston Dash W	29	9	6	14	-4	33
13	Boston Legacy W	28	9	5	14	-9	32
14	Bay FC W	29	7	6	16	-16	27
15	Racing Louisville W	29	7	3	19	-22	24
16	Chicago Red Stars W	29	5	2	22	-52	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Kansas City W win, at 50.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.