Bay FC W vs San Diego Wave W Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.94 expected goals for Bay FC W and 1.51 for San Diego Wave W, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives San Diego Wave W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

San Diego Wave W win

50.4% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.94 – 1.51

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Bay FC W home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
San Diego Wave W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates San Diego Wave W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 24% / 26% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.94 goals for Bay FC W and 1.51 for San Diego Wave W, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Bay FC W win24%

Draw26%

San Diego Wave W win50%

Double chance 1X

50%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

76%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

0–113.0%
1–112.3%
0–29.8%
1–29.2%
0–08.6%

Recent form

Bay FC W

2026-09-27T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Orlando Pride W · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-20T23:05:00.000Z · H vs Racing Louisville W · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-17T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Denver Summit W · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Seattle Reign FC W · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-05T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Kansas City W · 1-2 (L)

San Diego Wave W

2026-10-17T23:00:00.000Z · A vs North Carolina Courage W · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Orlando Pride W · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-25T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Racing Louisville W · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T02:10:00.000Z · H vs Kansas City W · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T22:30:00.000Z · H vs North Carolina Courage W · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

NWSL Women table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	NJ/NY Gotham FC W	28	16	7	5	13	55
2	San Diego Wave W	28	17	3	8	13	54
3	Washington Spirit W	28	16	4	8	14	52
4	Angel City W	29	14	7	8	19	49
5	Kansas City W	28	14	5	9	12	47
6	Utah Royals W	29	14	5	10	7	47
7	Portland Thorns W	29	13	8	8	7	47
8	Seattle Reign FC W	29	13	5	11	3	44
9	North Carolina Courage W	29	13	3	13	9	42
10	Denver Summit W	29	11	8	10	12	41
11	Orlando Pride W	28	11	3	14	-6	36
12	Houston Dash W	29	9	6	14	-4	33
13	Boston Legacy W	28	9	5	14	-9	32
14	Bay FC W	29	7	6	16	-16	27
15	Racing Louisville W	29	7	3	19	-22	24
16	Chicago Red Stars W	29	5	2	22	-52	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is San Diego Wave W win, at 50.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.