Olympic Park · Analysis updated 18:56 UTC
Bay Olympic vs Birkenhead United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Bay Olympic and 1.65 for Birkenhead United, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Birkenhead United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.2% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bay Olympic home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Birkenhead United away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Birkenhead United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 34% / 24% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Bay Olympic and 1.65 for Birkenhead United, a combined 3.10 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 1–28.9%
- 2–17.8%
- 0–17.4%
- 1–06.5%
Recent form
Bay Olympic
- 2025-08-30T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Auckland II · 2-2 (D)
- 2025-08-23T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Fencibles United · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-08-16T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Tauranga City United · 0-0 (D)
- 2025-08-09T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Birkenhead United · 1-5 (L)
- 2025-08-02T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Western Springs · 1-3 (L)
Birkenhead United
- 2026-09-27T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Cashmere Technical · 0-4 (L)
- 2025-12-07T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Western Springs · 3-1 (W)
- 2025-11-29T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Wellington Phoenix II · 3-2 (W)
- 2025-11-23T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Miramar · 1-4 (L)
- 2025-11-15T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Auckland United · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National League - Northern table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Springs | 22 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 42 |
| 2 | Birkenhead United | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 41 |
| 3 | Auckland United | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 40 |
| 4 | Auckland City | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 40 |
| 5 | Eastern Suburbs | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 40 |
| 6 | East Coast Bays | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 36 |
| 7 | Tauranga City United | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 4 | 30 |
| 8 | Bay Olympic | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | -10 | 24 |
| 9 | Auckland II | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -4 | 23 |
| 10 | Fencibles United | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -12 | 21 |
| 11 | Manurewa | 22 | 4 | 4 | 14 | -33 | 16 |
| 12 | West Coast Rangers | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -20 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.