Olympic Park · Referee Jack Henderson · Analysis updated 12:46 UTC
Bay Olympic vs Manurewa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.08 expected goals for Bay Olympic and 1.09 for Manurewa, a combined total of 3.17. That distribution gives Bay Olympic the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bay Olympic win
60.1% probability
Expected goals
2.08 – 1.09
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bay Olympic home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bay Olympic to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 21% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.08 goals for Bay Olympic and 1.09 for Manurewa, a combined 3.17 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 61% and both teams to score at 58%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.5%
- 2–09.1%
- 1–08.7%
- 3–16.9%
Recent form
Bay Olympic
- 2025-08-30T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Auckland II · 2-2 (D)
- 2025-08-23T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Fencibles United · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-08-16T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Tauranga City United · 0-0 (D)
- 2025-08-09T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Birkenhead United · 1-5 (L)
- 2025-08-02T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Western Springs · 1-3 (L)
Manurewa
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National League - Northern table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Springs | 22 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 42 |
| 2 | Birkenhead United | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 41 |
| 3 | Auckland United | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 40 |
| 4 | Auckland City | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 40 |
| 5 | Eastern Suburbs | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 40 |
| 6 | East Coast Bays | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 36 |
| 7 | Tauranga City United | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 4 | 30 |
| 8 | Bay Olympic | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | -10 | 24 |
| 9 | Auckland II | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -4 | 23 |
| 10 | Fencibles United | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -12 | 21 |
| 11 | Manurewa | 22 | 4 | 4 | 14 | -33 | 16 |
| 12 | West Coast Rangers | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -20 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bay Olympic win, at 60.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.