· Analysis updated 10:40 UTC
Bayer Leverkusen U19 vs Elversberg U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.60 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen U19 and 1.10 for Elversberg U19, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives Bayer Leverkusen U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bayer Leverkusen U19 win
69.5% probability
Expected goals
2.60 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bayer Leverkusen U19 home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Elversberg U19 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bayer Leverkusen U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 17% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.60 goals for Bayer Leverkusen U19 and 1.10 for Elversberg U19, a combined 3.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
31%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.2%
- 2–08.3%
- 3–18.0%
- 3–07.2%
- 1–17.1%
Recent form
Bayer Leverkusen U19
- 2026-08-23T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Saarbrücken U19 · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-08-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia M'bach U19 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Elversberg U19 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-09T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Bochum U19 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Hildesheim U19 · 4-0 (W)
Elversberg U19
- 2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Borussia M'bach U19 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Viktoria Köln U19 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-23T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Bochum U19 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Alemannia Aachen U19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayer Leverkusen U19 · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bayer Leverkusen U19 win, at 69.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.