· Analysis updated 09:36 UTC
Bayer Leverkusen U19 vs Mainz 05 U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen U19 and 1.85 for Mainz 05 U19, a combined total of 3.72. That distribution gives Bayer Leverkusen U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
61.2% probability
Expected goals
1.88 – 1.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bayer Leverkusen U19 home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mainz 05 U19 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bayer Leverkusen U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 22% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.88 goals for Bayer Leverkusen U19 and 1.85 for Mainz 05 U19, a combined 3.72 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.4%
- 2–17.8%
- 1–27.7%
- 2–27.3%
- 3–14.9%
Recent form
Bayer Leverkusen U19
- 2026-08-23T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Saarbrücken U19 · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-08-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia M'bach U19 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Elversberg U19 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-09T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Bochum U19 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Hildesheim U19 · 4-0 (W)
Mainz 05 U19
- 2026-08-23T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Wehen Wiesbaden U19 · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-16T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaiserslautern U19 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-09T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Köln U19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-02T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Augsburg U19 · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-05-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hoffenheim U19 · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-21T10:00:00.000Z · Bayer Leverkusen U19 4-3 Mainz 05 U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
- 2026-02-14T10:00:00.000Z · Bayer Leverkusen U19 3-3 Mainz 05 U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
- 2025-04-27T09:00:00.000Z · Bayer Leverkusen U19 2-1 Mainz 05 U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 61.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.