· Analysis updated 18:57 UTC
Bayer Leverkusen U19 vs Saarbrücken U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.30 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen U19 and 0.99 for Saarbrücken U19, a combined total of 4.29. That distribution gives Bayer Leverkusen U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 81%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 81% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bayer Leverkusen U19 win
81.2% probability
Expected goals
3.30 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bayer Leverkusen U19 home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Saarbrücken U19 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bayer Leverkusen U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 81%, against 81% / 11% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.30 goals for Bayer Leverkusen U19 and 0.99 for Saarbrücken U19, a combined 4.29 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
19%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–08.2%
- 3–18.1%
- 2–07.5%
- 2–17.4%
- 4–06.8%
Recent form
Bayer Leverkusen U19
- 2026-08-23T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Saarbrücken U19 · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-08-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia M'bach U19 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Elversberg U19 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-09T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Bochum U19 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Hildesheim U19 · 4-0 (W)
Saarbrücken U19
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Bochum U19 · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Alemannia Aachen U19 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-23T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayer Leverkusen U19 · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-08-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Viktoria Köln U19 · 0-9 (L)
- 2026-08-09T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Borussia M'bach U19 · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bayer Leverkusen U19 win, at 81.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 81% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.