BayArena · Analysis updated 19:45 UTC
Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.88 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 3.78. That distribution gives Bayer Leverkusen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
61.2% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bayer Leverkusen home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
SC Freiburg away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bayer Leverkusen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 21% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.88 for SC Freiburg, a combined 3.78 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.2%
- 2–17.8%
- 1–27.7%
- 2–27.3%
- 3–14.9%
Recent form
Bayer Leverkusen
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FSV Mainz 05 · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · H vs RB Leipzig · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Celje · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Augsburg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Berlin · 4-0 (W)
SC Freiburg
- 2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Schalke 04 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Luzern · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Paderborn 07 · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern München | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 11 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 |
| 6 | FC Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 9 | SV Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | FC Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn 07 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 61.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.