· Analysis updated 20:39 UTC
Bayer Leverkusen vs Sevilla Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.30 for Sevilla, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Bayer Leverkusen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws roughly 51% of the time.
Model pick
Bayer Leverkusen to Win
49.2% probability
Expected goals
1.80 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–08.1%
- 2–07.3%
- 1–26.9%
Why the model likes this
Sevilla away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bayer Leverkusen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 23% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.30 for Sevilla, a combined 3.10 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 60% and both teams to score at 61%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Odds comparison
Indicative prices for the main markets.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Home | 1.93 | 10Bet |
| Match Result | Draw | 3.85 | 10Bet |
| Match Result | Away | 3.40 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 1.18 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | 4.75 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.57 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.35 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.40 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.55 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 1.03 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 0.5 | 11.00 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 4.33 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 4.5 | 1.20 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 5.5 | 8.00 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 5.5 | 1.07 | 10Bet |
| BTTS | Yes | 1.50 | 10Bet |
| BTTS | No | 2.38 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Home/Draw | 1.30 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Draw/Away | 1.83 | 10Bet |
Recent form
Bayer Leverkusen
Sevilla
- 2026-08-08T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bayer Leverkusen · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-02T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Utrecht · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · A vs NEC Nijmegen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-26T19:00:00.000Z · H vs AD Ceuta FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-23T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Cordoba · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.