· Analysis updated 16:00 UTC
Bayer Leverkusen vs Sevilla Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.23 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 0.70 for Sevilla, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Bayer Leverkusen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bayer Leverkusen win
72.2% probability
Expected goals
2.23 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bayer Leverkusen home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sevilla away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bayer Leverkusen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 72% / 18% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.23 goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 0.70 for Sevilla, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
28%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–013.3%
- 1–011.9%
- 3–09.9%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–18.4%
Recent form
Bayer Leverkusen
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FSV Mainz 05 · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · H vs RB Leipzig · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Celje · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Augsburg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Berlin · 4-0 (W)
Sevilla
- 2026-10-02T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Aston Villa · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Barcelona · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo La Coruna · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Valencia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Espanyol · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T13:30:00.000Z · Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 Sevilla (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bayer Leverkusen win, at 72.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.