Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.47 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.53 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Bayer Leverkusen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Bayer Leverkusen win

58.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.47 – 1.53

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Bayer Leverkusen home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
VfB Stuttgart away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bayer Leverkusen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 19% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.47 goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.53 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Bayer Leverkusen win58%

Draw19%

VfB Stuttgart win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals76%

Over 3.5 goals57%

Both teams to score72%

Correct score

2–18.6%
3–17.1%
1–16.9%
2–26.5%
2–05.6%

Recent form

Bayer Leverkusen

2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · H vs SC Freiburg · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Lech Poznan · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FSV Mainz 05 · 4-3 (W)
2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · H vs RB Leipzig · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Celje · 2-0 (W)

VfB Stuttgart

2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Slovan Bratislava · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Paderborn 07 · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-01T15:30:00.000Z · H vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-25T14:30:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Heidenheim · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Bundesliga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bayern München	6	4	2	0	17	14
2	Borussia Dortmund	6	4	2	0	7	14
3	SC Freiburg	6	4	1	1	9	13
4	Bayer Leverkusen	6	4	1	1	7	13
5	FSV Mainz 05	6	3	1	2	4	10
6	SV Elversberg	6	3	1	2	1	10
7	RB Leipzig	6	3	0	3	5	9
8	Werder Bremen	6	2	3	1	0	9
9	Hamburger SV	6	3	0	3	-9	9
10	FC Augsburg	6	2	2	2	4	8
11	Eintracht Frankfurt	6	2	2	2	-6	8
12	1. FC Köln	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	VfB Stuttgart	6	2	0	4	-2	6
14	1899 Hoffenheim	6	2	0	4	-3	6
15	FC Schalke 04	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	SC Paderborn 07	6	1	2	3	-4	5
17	Union Berlin	6	1	2	3	-12	5
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	6	0	0	6	-12	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Bayer Leverkusen win, at 58.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.