· Analysis updated 02:52 UTC
Bayern Alzenau vs Unter-Flockenbach Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Bayern Alzenau and 1.95 for Unter-Flockenbach, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Unter-Flockenbach the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Unter-Flockenbach win
49.3% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bayern Alzenau home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Unter-Flockenbach away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.4%
- 1–29.2%
- 2–16.8%
- 2–26.7%
- 0–16.5%
Recent form
Bayern Alzenau
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Stadtallendorf · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs TuBa Pohlheim · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Friedberg · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Unter-Flockenbach · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Darmstadt 98 II · 3-2 (W)
Unter-Flockenbach
- 2026-09-25T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Stadtallendorf · 2-7 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs TuBa Pohlheim · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Friedberg · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-09T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Hummetroth · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Gießen · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · Bayern Alzenau 3-0 Unter-Flockenbach (Oberliga - Hessen)
- 2025-04-17T16:30:00.000Z · Bayern Alzenau 2-2 Unter-Flockenbach (Oberliga - Hessen)
- 2024-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · Bayern Alzenau 7-0 Unter-Flockenbach (Oberliga - Hessen)
- 2023-04-01T15:00:00.000Z · Bayern Alzenau 0-3 Unter-Flockenbach (Oberliga - Hessen)
- 2022-10-19T17:30:00.000Z · Bayern Alzenau 2-2 Unter-Flockenbach (Oberliga - Hessen)
Oberliga - Hessen table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eintracht Stadtallendorf | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 30 | 33 |
| 2 | Unter-Flockenbach | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 32 |
| 3 | Friedberg | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 27 |
| 4 | Hadamar | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 27 |
| 5 | Eddersheim | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 25 |
| 6 | Darmstadt 98 II | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 24 |
| 7 | TuBa Pohlheim | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | -1 | 23 |
| 8 | Hünfelder SV | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 22 |
| 9 | Fernwald | 15 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 21 |
| 10 | Vfb Marburg | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -2 | 21 |
| 11 | Rot-Weiß Walldorf | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 20 |
| 12 | Kassel | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -10 | 19 |
| 13 | Bayern Alzenau | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -3 | 17 |
| 14 | Baunatal | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | -7 | 16 |
| 15 | Hummetroth | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -8 | 13 |
| 16 | 1960 Hanau | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -14 | 13 |
| 17 | Kassel 2 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -12 | 12 |
| 18 | FC Gießen | 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | -21 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Unter-Flockenbach win, at 49.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.