Bayern Hof vs Weiden Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.73 expected goals for Bayern Hof and 1.40 for Weiden, a combined total of 4.13. That distribution gives Bayern Hof the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Bayern Hof win

65.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.73 – 1.40

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Bayern Hof home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Weiden away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 7 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Bayern Hof win65%

Draw17%

Weiden win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

35%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals78%

Over 3.5 goals59%

Both teams to score70%

Correct score

2–18.4%
3–17.6%
1–16.2%
2–06.0%
2–25.9%

Recent form

Bayern Hof

2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Würzburger FV · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Viktoria Aschaffenburg · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Jahn Regensburg II · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gebenbach · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stadeln · 2-1 (W)

Weiden

2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Viktoria Aschaffenburg · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Jahn Regensburg II · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Gebenbach · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Stadeln · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Regensburg · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · Bayern Hof 1-3 Weiden (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
2026-03-28T14:00:00.000Z · Bayern Hof 1-2 Weiden (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
2025-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · Bayern Hof 2-2 Weiden (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
2025-04-25T17:00:00.000Z · Bayern Hof 3-1 Weiden (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
2024-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · Bayern Hof 1-0 Weiden (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
2023-04-28T17:00:00.000Z · Bayern Hof 2-3 Weiden (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
2022-09-24T13:00:00.000Z · Bayern Hof 2-1 Weiden (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)

Oberliga - Bayern Nord table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cham	14	12	1	1	23	37
2	Würzburger FV	14	8	3	3	9	27
3	Gebenbach	14	8	2	4	6	26
4	Eintracht Bamberg	14	7	4	3	11	25
5	Kornburg	14	6	6	2	12	24
6	Bayern Hof	14	6	5	3	8	23
7	Jahn Regensburg II	14	6	5	3	6	23
8	Fortuna Regensburg	14	6	3	5	9	21
9	Viktoria Aschaffenburg	14	6	3	5	6	21
10	Stadeln	14	5	5	4	-3	20
11	Neudrossenfeld	14	6	1	7	-2	19
12	Ammerthal	14	4	3	7	-9	15
13	Ingolstadt II	14	3	4	7	-8	13
14	Weiden	14	3	4	7	-9	13
15	Großbardorf	14	4	1	9	-10	13
16	DJK Bamberg	14	2	5	7	-15	11
17	Nordlingen	14	2	4	8	-17	10
18	ASV Neumarkt	14	1	3	10	-17	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Bayern Hof win, at 65.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.