Bayern München vs RB Leipzig Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for Bayern München and 1.15 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Bayern München the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Bayern München win

55.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.93 – 1.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Bayern München home form
9 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
RB Leipzig away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Bayern München win55%

Draw22%

RB Leipzig win23%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals59%

Over 3.5 goals37%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

1–110.2%
2–19.8%
1–08.9%
2–08.6%
3–16.3%

Recent form

Bayern München

2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Viking · 3-3 (D)
2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Augsburg · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-18T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Berlin · 7-0 (W)
2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · A vs SV Elversberg · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Bodo/Glimt · 5-0 (W)

RB Leipzig

2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 6-0 (W)
2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bayer Leverkusen · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-13T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Hamburger SV · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Como · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Werder Bremen · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-15T13:30:00.000Z · Bayern München 3-1 RB Leipzig (Friendlies Clubs)
2026-02-11T19:45:00.000Z · Bayern München 2-0 RB Leipzig (DFB Pokal)
2026-01-17T17:30:00.000Z · Bayern München 5-1 RB Leipzig (Bundesliga)
2025-08-22T18:30:00.000Z · Bayern München 6-0 RB Leipzig (Bundesliga)
2025-05-03T13:30:00.000Z · Bayern München 3-3 RB Leipzig (Bundesliga)
2024-12-20T19:30:00.000Z · Bayern München 5-1 RB Leipzig (Bundesliga)
2024-02-24T17:30:00.000Z · Bayern München 2-1 RB Leipzig (Bundesliga)
2023-09-30T16:30:00.000Z · Bayern München 2-2 RB Leipzig (Bundesliga)
2023-08-12T18:45:00.000Z · Bayern München 0-3 RB Leipzig (Super Cup)
2023-05-20T16:30:00.000Z · Bayern München 1-3 RB Leipzig (Bundesliga)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Bayern München win, at 55.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.