Allianz Arena · Analysis updated 19:44 UTC
Bayern München vs RB Leipzig Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.85 expected goals for Bayern München and 0.85 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives Bayern München the largest share of the 1X2 market at 78%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 78% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Bayern München win
78.4% probability
Expected goals
2.85 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bayern München home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
RB Leipzig away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
22%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.0%
- 3–09.5%
- 2–18.5%
- 3–18.1%
- 1–07.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.40 (model 46.2% vs market 39.2%, edge +7.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.40 | 39.2% | 46.2% | 2.16 | +7.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 4.50 | 21.3% | 21.7% | 4.61 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.05 | 91.4% | 91.7% | 1.09 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 7.00 | 13.2% | 13.3% | 7.52 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.18 | 78.4% | 78.4% | 1.28 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 11.00 | 8.4% | 8.4% | 11.90 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.10 | 87.3% | 86.8% | 1.15 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.55 | 60.8% | 53.8% | 1.86 | -7.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Bayern München
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Augsburg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-18T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Berlin · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · A vs SV Elversberg · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Bodo/Glimt · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Schalke 04 · 0-0 (D)
RB Leipzig
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bayer Leverkusen · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Hamburger SV · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Como · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Werder Bremen · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T13:30:00.000Z · Bayern München 3-1 RB Leipzig (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-02-11T19:45:00.000Z · Bayern München 2-0 RB Leipzig (DFB Pokal)
- 2026-01-17T17:30:00.000Z · Bayern München 5-1 RB Leipzig (Bundesliga)
- 2025-08-22T18:30:00.000Z · Bayern München 6-0 RB Leipzig (Bundesliga)
- 2025-05-03T13:30:00.000Z · Bayern München 3-3 RB Leipzig (Bundesliga)
- 2024-12-20T19:30:00.000Z · Bayern München 5-1 RB Leipzig (Bundesliga)
- 2024-02-24T17:30:00.000Z · Bayern München 2-1 RB Leipzig (Bundesliga)
- 2023-09-30T16:30:00.000Z · Bayern München 2-2 RB Leipzig (Bundesliga)
- 2023-08-12T18:45:00.000Z · Bayern München 0-3 RB Leipzig (Super Cup)
- 2023-05-20T16:30:00.000Z · Bayern München 1-3 RB Leipzig (Bundesliga)
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern München | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 11 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 |
| 6 | FC Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 9 | SV Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | FC Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn 07 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bayern München win, at 78.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.