Allianz Arena · Analysis updated 13:36 UTC
Bayern München vs SV Elversberg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.20 expected goals for Bayern München and 1.25 for SV Elversberg, a combined total of 4.45. That distribution gives Bayern München the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Bayern München win
75.3% probability
Expected goals
3.20 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bayern München home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
SV Elversberg away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bayern München to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 75% / 13% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.20 goals for Bayern München and 1.25 for SV Elversberg, a combined 4.45 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
25%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–18.0%
- 2–17.5%
- 3–06.4%
- 4–16.4%
- 2–06.0%
Recent form
Bayern München
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Augsburg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-18T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Berlin · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · A vs SV Elversberg · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Bodo/Glimt · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Schalke 04 · 0-0 (D)
SV Elversberg
- 2026-09-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Waldhof Mannheim · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Schalke 04 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayern München · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-08-29T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayer Leverkusen · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern München | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 11 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 |
| 6 | FC Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 9 | SV Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | FC Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn 07 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bayern München win, at 75.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.