FC Bayern Campus · Referee S. Diekmann · Analysis updated 05:03 UTC
Bayern Munich W vs 1899 Hoffenheim W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.18 expected goals for Bayern Munich W and 1.05 for 1899 Hoffenheim W, a combined total of 4.23. That distribution gives Bayern Munich W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bayern Munich W win
78.8% probability
Expected goals
3.18 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bayern Munich W home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
1899 Hoffenheim W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bayern Munich W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 79%, against 79% / 12% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.18 goals for Bayern Munich W and 1.05 for 1899 Hoffenheim W, a combined 4.23 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
21%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–18.2%
- 3–07.8%
- 2–17.7%
- 2–07.4%
- 4–16.5%
Recent form
Bayern Munich W
- 2026-10-03T15:55:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Frankfurt W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs SL Benfica W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Monchengladbach W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Manchester City W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Koln W · 5-2 (W)
1899 Hoffenheim W
- 2026-08-28T16:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Koln W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Stuttgart W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs RB Leipzig W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Union Berlin W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayern Munich W · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Frauen Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich W | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 24 |
| 2 | VfL Wolfsburg W | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 21 |
| 3 | Eintracht Frankfurt W | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | Werder Bremen W | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen W | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 6 | FC Koln W | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | RB Leipzig W | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 8 | Union Berlin W | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 9 | SC Freiburg W | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 10 | 1899 Hoffenheim W | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | Stuttgart W | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -12 | 8 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV W | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 13 | Nürnberg W | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 5 |
| 14 | Mainz 05 W | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -23 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bayern Munich W win, at 78.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.