Audi Sportpark · Referee A. Soder · Analysis updated 14:12 UTC
Bayern Munich W vs VfL Wolfsburg W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Bayern Munich W and 1.76 for VfL Wolfsburg W, a combined total of 3.48. That distribution gives VfL Wolfsburg W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
62.0% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.76
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bayern Munich W home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
VfL Wolfsburg W away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.4%
- 1–28.2%
- 2–18.0%
- 2–27.1%
- 0–15.4%
Recent form
Bayern Munich W
- 2026-10-03T15:55:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Frankfurt W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs SL Benfica W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Monchengladbach W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Manchester City W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Koln W · 5-2 (W)
VfL Wolfsburg W
- 2026-10-24T10:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Koln W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Mainz 05 W · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T11:45:00.000Z · H vs Hamburger SV W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-30T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Sturm Graz W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Sand W · 6-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T17:30:00.000Z · Bayern Munich W 3-0 VfL Wolfsburg W (Supercup der Frauen)
- 2026-05-14T14:00:00.000Z · Bayern Munich W 4-0 VfL Wolfsburg W (DFB Pokal - Women)
- 2026-02-22T15:20:00.000Z · Bayern Munich W 4-1 VfL Wolfsburg W (Frauen Bundesliga)
- 2025-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · Bayern Munich W 3-1 VfL Wolfsburg W (Frauen Bundesliga)
- 2025-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · Bayern Munich W 4-2 VfL Wolfsburg W (Supercup der Frauen)
- 2025-03-14T15:55:00.000Z · Bayern Munich W 3-1 VfL Wolfsburg W (Frauen Bundesliga)
- 2024-10-12T15:45:00.000Z · Bayern Munich W 0-2 VfL Wolfsburg W (Frauen Bundesliga)
- 2024-08-25T16:15:00.000Z · Bayern Munich W 1-0 VfL Wolfsburg W (Supercup der Frauen)
- 2024-05-09T14:00:00.000Z · Bayern Munich W 0-2 VfL Wolfsburg W (DFB Pokal - Women)
- 2024-03-23T16:45:00.000Z · Bayern Munich W 4-0 VfL Wolfsburg W (Frauen Bundesliga)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.