· Analysis updated 13:39 UTC
Bayonne vs Châteaubriant Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.94 expected goals for Bayonne and 0.58 for Châteaubriant, a combined total of 2.52. That distribution gives Bayonne the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bayonne win
69.8% probability
Expected goals
1.94 – 0.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bayonne home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Châteaubriant away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bayonne to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 20% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.94 goals for Bayonne and 0.58 for Châteaubriant, a combined 2.52 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.7%
- 2–015.2%
- 3–09.8%
- 1–19.1%
- 2–18.8%
Recent form
Bayonne
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Les Herbiers · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Angoulême · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Châteaubriant · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Lorient II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Saumur · 1-0 (W)
Châteaubriant
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Pontivy GSI · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayonne · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tarbes · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Chauray · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Avranches · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National 2 - Group B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Angoulême | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| 2 | Bayonne | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 3 | Avranches | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Lorient II | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 12 |
| 5 | Granville | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | Dinan Léhon | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | Saint-Malo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Stade Briochin | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Le Poiré sur Vie | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 10 | Tarbes | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | Saint-Colomban Locminé | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Les Herbiers | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Saumur | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 14 | Pontivy GSI | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 15 | Châteaubriant | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 16 | Chauray | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bayonne win, at 69.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.