Tuen Mun tang Shiu Kin Sports Ground · Analysis updated 15:45 UTC
BC Rangers vs North District Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for BC Rangers and 1.91 for North District, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives North District the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
North District win
50.7% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.91
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
BC Rangers home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
North District away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates North District to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 27% / 22% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for BC Rangers and 1.91 for North District, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–17.4%
- 0–27.0%
- 2–16.7%
Recent form
BC Rangers
- 2026-10-04T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Wofoo Tai Po · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Eastern · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T08:00:00.000Z · A vs North District · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Wofoo Tai Po · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Eastern District · 1-3 (L)
North District
- 2026-10-01T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Southern District · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T08:00:00.000Z · H vs BC Rangers · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Shatin · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Kitchee · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-23T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Wofoo Tai Po · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kitchee | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Warriors | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | North District | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Wofoo Tai Po | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Eastern | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Kowloon City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Eastern District | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Southern District | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | BC Rangers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Hong Kong FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Shatin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is North District win, at 50.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.