BDF XI vs Police XI Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.82 expected goals for BDF XI and 0.94 for Police XI, a combined total of 1.76. That distribution gives Police XI the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

69.7% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.82 – 0.94

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

BDF XI home form
0 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Police XI away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

BDF XI win30%

Draw33%

Police XI win37%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

67%

Double chance X2

70%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals53%

Over 2.5 goals26%

Over 3.5 goals10%

Both teams to score34%

Correct score

0–017.2%
0–116.1%
1–014.2%
1–113.3%
0–27.5%

Recent form

BDF XI

2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sua Flamingoes · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Orapa United · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Tonota · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Prisons XI · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nico United · 1-3 (L)

Police XI

2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Orapa United · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Matebele · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Morupule Wanderers · 2-0 (W)
2026-05-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Morupule Wanderers · 0-2 (L)
2026-05-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Orapa United · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-03-18T14:00:00.000Z · BDF XI 2-1 Police XI (Premier League)
2025-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · BDF XI 2-0 Police XI (Premier League)
2024-05-18T13:00:00.000Z · BDF XI 1-0 Police XI (Premier League)
2023-10-29T14:30:00.000Z · BDF XI 0-1 Police XI (Premier League)
2023-03-05T13:30:00.000Z · BDF XI 2-2 Police XI (Premier League)
2023-02-12T14:00:00.000Z · BDF XI 1-2 Police XI (Premier League)
2022-03-19T13:30:00.000Z · BDF XI 1-0 Police XI (Premier League)
2021-12-19T00:00:00.000Z · BDF XI 1-2 Police XI (Premier League)
2020-02-15T13:30:00.000Z · BDF XI 0-0 Police XI (Premier League)
2019-12-11T17:00:00.000Z · BDF XI 2-2 Police XI (Premier League)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Gaborone United	5	5	0	0	8	15
2	Tonota	6	4	2	0	6	14
3	Sua Flamingoes	6	3	2	1	2	11
4	Centre Chiefs	6	3	1	2	1	10
5	Orapa United	7	2	3	2	1	9
6	Extension Gunners	6	2	3	1	-1	9
7	TAFIC	5	2	2	1	2	8
8	Police XI	6	2	2	2	0	8
9	Galaxy	4	2	1	1	1	7
10	Nico United	6	2	0	4	-2	6
11	Township Rollers	5	1	2	2	0	5
12	Enesia	6	1	2	3	-3	5
13	Matebele	6	1	1	4	-3	4
14	BDF XI	5	1	1	3	-4	4
15	Prisons XI	6	1	1	4	-4	4
16	Morupule Wanderers	5	0	3	2	-4	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.