· Analysis updated 17:02 UTC
Bdin vs Chavdar Troyan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Bdin and 1.26 for Chavdar Troyan, a combined total of 3.12. That distribution gives Bdin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bdin win
51.2% probability
Expected goals
1.85 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bdin home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bdin to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 23% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for Bdin and 1.26 for Chavdar Troyan, a combined 3.12 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 60% and both teams to score at 61%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–08.2%
- 2–07.6%
- 1–26.6%
Recent form
Bdin
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Montana · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chavdar Troyan · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs OFK Levski · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pavlikeni · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Pleven II · 4-2 (W)
Chavdar Troyan
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Pavlikeni · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Pleven II · 1-1 (D)
- 2020-09-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kariana Erden · 0-4 (L)
- 2020-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pavlikeni · 3-0 (W)
- 2020-08-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Botev Lukovit · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Third League - Northwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Akademik Svishtov | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 17 |
| 2 | Lokomotiv Mezdra | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Yantra Polski Trambesh | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 12 |
| 4 | Partizan | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 5 | Kom Berkovitsa | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 6 | Sevlievo | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Bdin | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Chavdar Troyan | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Etar VT II | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 |
| 10 | OFK Levski | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 11 | Spartak Pleven II | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -12 | 5 |
| 12 | Pavlikeni | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -8 | 3 |
| 13 | Juventus Malchika | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -16 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bdin win, at 51.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.