· Analysis updated 14:32 UTC
Bdin vs Lokomotiv Mezdra Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.38 expected goals for Bdin and 1.90 for Lokomotiv Mezdra, a combined total of 4.28. That distribution gives Bdin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bdin win
49.0% probability
Expected goals
2.38 – 1.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bdin home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lokomotiv Mezdra away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.5%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–16.3%
- 1–26.0%
- 3–15.9%
Recent form
Bdin
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Montana · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chavdar Troyan · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs OFK Levski · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pavlikeni · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Pleven II · 4-2 (W)
Lokomotiv Mezdra
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bdin · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sevlievo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Partizan · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Akademik Svishtov · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bdin · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · Bdin 0-1 Lokomotiv Mezdra (Third League - Northwest)
- 2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · Bdin 1-4 Lokomotiv Mezdra (Third League - Northwest)
- 2025-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · Bdin 2-3 Lokomotiv Mezdra (Third League - Northwest)
- 2025-04-05T14:00:00.000Z · Bdin 2-1 Lokomotiv Mezdra (Third League - Northwest)
- 2024-10-05T13:00:00.000Z · Bdin 1-2 Lokomotiv Mezdra (Third League - Northwest)
- 2023-04-22T14:00:00.000Z · Bdin 3-1 Lokomotiv Mezdra (Third League - Northwest)
- 2022-09-30T14:00:00.000Z · Bdin 2-1 Lokomotiv Mezdra (Third League - Northwest)
- 2022-04-09T14:00:00.000Z · Bdin 0-1 Lokomotiv Mezdra (Third League - Northwest)
- 2021-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · Bdin 3-1 Lokomotiv Mezdra (Third League - Northwest)
- 2021-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · Bdin 4-1 Lokomotiv Mezdra (Third League - Northwest)
Third League - Northwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Akademik Svishtov | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 21 |
| 2 | Lokomotiv Mezdra | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 16 |
| 3 | Yantra Polski Trambesh | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 13 |
| 4 | Kom Berkovitsa | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Partizan | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | Chavdar Troyan | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | Etar VT II | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| 8 | Sevlievo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Pavlikeni | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 9 |
| 10 | Bdin | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 11 | OFK Levski | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Spartak Pleven II | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -13 | 6 |
| 13 | Juventus Malchika | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -16 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bdin win, at 49.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.