· Analysis updated 11:05 UTC
Bdin vs Lokomotiv Mezdra Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Bdin and 2.50 for Lokomotiv Mezdra, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Lokomotiv Mezdra the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lokomotiv Mezdra win
59.4% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 2.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bdin home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lokomotiv Mezdra away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.6%
- 1–37.2%
- 1–16.9%
- 2–26.4%
- 0–25.7%
Recent form
Bdin
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Montana · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chavdar Troyan · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs OFK Levski · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pavlikeni · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Pleven II · 4-2 (W)
Lokomotiv Mezdra
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bdin · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sevlievo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Partizan · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Akademik Svishtov · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bdin · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · Bdin 0-1 Lokomotiv Mezdra (Third League - Northwest)
- 2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · Bdin 1-4 Lokomotiv Mezdra (Third League - Northwest)
- 2025-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · Bdin 2-3 Lokomotiv Mezdra (Third League - Northwest)
- 2025-04-05T14:00:00.000Z · Bdin 2-1 Lokomotiv Mezdra (Third League - Northwest)
- 2024-10-05T13:00:00.000Z · Bdin 1-2 Lokomotiv Mezdra (Third League - Northwest)
- 2023-04-22T14:00:00.000Z · Bdin 3-1 Lokomotiv Mezdra (Third League - Northwest)
- 2022-09-30T14:00:00.000Z · Bdin 2-1 Lokomotiv Mezdra (Third League - Northwest)
- 2022-04-09T14:00:00.000Z · Bdin 0-1 Lokomotiv Mezdra (Third League - Northwest)
- 2021-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · Bdin 3-1 Lokomotiv Mezdra (Third League - Northwest)
- 2021-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · Bdin 4-1 Lokomotiv Mezdra (Third League - Northwest)
Third League - Northwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Akademik Svishtov | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 18 |
| 2 | Lokomotiv Mezdra | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 16 |
| 3 | Yantra Polski Trambesh | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 13 |
| 4 | Kom Berkovitsa | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Partizan | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Etar VT II | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| 7 | Sevlievo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Bdin | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 9 | OFK Levski | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 10 | Chavdar Troyan | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | Pavlikeni | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 6 |
| 12 | Spartak Pleven II | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -13 | 6 |
| 13 | Juventus Malchika | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -16 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lokomotiv Mezdra win, at 59.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.