· Analysis updated 12:06 UTC
Bdin vs Pavlikeni Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Bdin and 1.48 for Pavlikeni, a combined total of 3.31. That distribution gives Bdin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bdin win
45.9% probability
Expected goals
1.83 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bdin home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bdin to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 23% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.83 goals for Bdin and 1.48 for Pavlikeni, a combined 3.31 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 64% and both teams to score at 65%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–06.7%
Recent form
Bdin
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Montana · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chavdar Troyan · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs OFK Levski · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pavlikeni · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Pleven II · 4-2 (W)
Pavlikeni
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Third League - Northwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Akademik Svishtov | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 21 |
| 2 | Lokomotiv Mezdra | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 16 |
| 3 | Yantra Polski Trambesh | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 13 |
| 4 | Kom Berkovitsa | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Partizan | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | Chavdar Troyan | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | Etar VT II | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| 8 | Sevlievo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Pavlikeni | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 9 |
| 10 | Bdin | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 11 | OFK Levski | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Spartak Pleven II | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -13 | 6 |
| 13 | Juventus Malchika | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -16 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bdin win, at 45.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.