· Analysis updated 06:36 UTC
Bełchatów vs Polonia Nysa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.00 expected goals for Bełchatów and 1.25 for Polonia Nysa, a combined total of 4.25. That distribution gives Bełchatów the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bełchatów win
72.6% probability
Expected goals
3.00 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bełchatów home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Polonia Nysa away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bełchatów to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 73% / 15% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.00 goals for Bełchatów and 1.25 for Polonia Nysa, a combined 4.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
27%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.0%
- 3–18.0%
- 2–06.4%
- 3–06.4%
- 4–16.0%
Recent form
Bełchatów
- 2026-07-22T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Rakow II · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-07-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Tłuchowia · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-07-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Nysa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Wisła Płock II · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Jagiellonia II · 1-2 (L)
Polonia Nysa
- 2026-10-24T15:00:00.000Z · A vs ROW Rybnik · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Karkonosze Jelenia Góra · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Warta Gorzów · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Miedź Legnica II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kluczbork · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-11T11:00:00.000Z · Bełchatów 1-2 Polonia Nysa (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bełchatów win, at 72.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.