· Analysis updated 14:49 UTC
Bełchatów vs Rakow II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Bełchatów and 2.38 for Rakow II, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Rakow II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rakow II win
54.4% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 2.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bełchatów home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rakow II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rakow II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 26% / 20% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Bełchatów and 2.38 for Rakow II, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.4%
- 1–17.1%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–36.6%
- 2–15.7%
Recent form
Bełchatów
- 2026-07-22T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Rakow II · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-07-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Tłuchowia · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-07-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Nysa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Wisła Płock II · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Jagiellonia II · 1-2 (L)
Rakow II
- 2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Stal Brzeg · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-19T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Stilon Gorzów · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-16T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Zagłębie Lubin II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-08T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Odra Bytom Odrzański · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-31T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Górnik Polkowice · 4-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rakow II win, at 54.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.