Bełchatów vs Stomil Olsztyn Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Bełchatów and 1.56 for Stomil Olsztyn, a combined total of 3.37. That distribution gives Bełchatów the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

66.4% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.81 – 1.56

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Bełchatów home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stomil Olsztyn away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bełchatów to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 23% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for Bełchatów and 1.56 for Stomil Olsztyn, a combined 3.37 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Bełchatów win44%

Draw23%

Stomil Olsztyn win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

1–19.7%
2–18.8%
1–27.6%
2–26.9%
1–06.2%

Recent form

Bełchatów

2026-07-22T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Rakow II · 4-4 (D)
2026-07-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Tłuchowia · 4-1 (W)
2026-07-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Nysa · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Wisła Płock II · 1-4 (L)
2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Jagiellonia II · 1-2 (L)

Stomil Olsztyn

2026-07-25T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Chemik Bydgoszcz · 1-3 (L)
2026-07-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Legia Warszawa U19 · 1-3 (L)
2025-06-07T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Łomża · 0-4 (L)
2025-05-31T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Jagiellonia II · 1-1 (D)
2025-05-28T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Wigry Suwałki · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

III Liga - Group 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Weszlo	14	10	2	2	14	32
2	Wigry Suwałki	14	9	4	1	17	31
3	Swit	14	8	2	4	8	26
4	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	14	7	3	4	7	24
5	Pelikan Łowicz	14	7	3	4	4	24
6	Wisła Płock II	14	6	4	4	4	22
7	Ząbkovia Ząbki	14	6	4	4	4	22
8	Warta Sieradz	14	6	4	4	2	22
9	Olimpia Zambrów	14	6	3	5	1	21
10	Olimpia Elbląg	14	5	3	6	-3	18
11	Jagiellonia II	14	4	5	5	-1	17
12	Widzew II	14	4	4	6	0	16
13	Polonia Lidzbark Warm.	14	4	3	7	-3	15
14	ŁKS Łódź II	14	4	3	7	-4	15
15	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	14	4	2	8	-7	14
16	Mławianka Mława	14	4	2	8	-10	14
17	Troszyn	14	2	5	7	-15	11
18	Łomża	14	0	4	10	-18	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.