Be'sat Kermanshah vs Havadar Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for Be'sat Kermanshah and 0.49 for Havadar, a combined total of 1.96. That distribution gives Be'sat Kermanshah the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Be'sat Kermanshah win

61.3% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.46 – 0.49

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Be'sat Kermanshah home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Be'sat Kermanshah to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 26% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.46 goals for Be'sat Kermanshah and 0.49 for Havadar, a combined 1.96 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 31% and both teams to score at 30%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%.

Match result (1X2)

Be'sat Kermanshah win61%

Draw26%

Havadar win12%

Double chance 1X

88%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

39%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals58%

Over 2.5 goals31%

Over 3.5 goals14%

Both teams to score30%

Correct score

1–020.7%
2–015.1%
0–014.1%
1–110.2%
2–17.5%

Recent form

Be'sat Kermanshah

2026-10-05T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Naft Bandar Abbas · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-29T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Mes Rafsanjan · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Havadar · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-16T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Naft Gachsaran · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-16T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Pars Jonoubi JAM · 1-2 (L)

Havadar

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Azadegan League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mes Rafsanjan	6	4	2	0	6	14
2	Pars Jonoubi JAM	6	4	2	0	4	14
3	Ario Eslamshahr	6	4	0	2	4	12
4	Shenavarsazi Qeshm	6	3	3	0	3	12
5	Saipa	6	3	1	2	1	10
6	Naft Masjed Soleyman	6	2	2	2	2	8
7	Fard Alborz	6	2	2	2	1	8
8	Mes Soongoun	6	2	2	2	-1	8
9	Be'sat Kermanshah	6	2	1	3	1	7
10	Novin Ahvaz	6	1	4	1	0	7
11	Naft Gachsaran	6	1	3	2	0	6
12	Shahin Bandar Ameri	6	1	3	2	-2	6
13	Naft Bandar Abbas	6	1	3	2	-4	6
14	Niroye Zamini	6	1	1	4	-5	4
15	Mes Kerman	6	0	3	3	-3	3
16	Havadar	6	0	2	4	-7	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Be'sat Kermanshah win, at 61.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 30% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.