· Analysis updated 14:19 UTC
Be'sat Kermanshah vs Mes Soongoun Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Be'sat Kermanshah and 0.63 for Mes Soongoun, a combined total of 1.70. That distribution gives Be'sat Kermanshah the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 24% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Be'sat Kermanshah win
46.1% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 0.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Be'sat Kermanshah home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mes Soongoun away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Be'sat Kermanshah to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 33% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for Be'sat Kermanshah and 0.63 for Mes Soongoun, a combined 1.70 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–019.6%
- 0–018.3%
- 1–112.3%
- 0–111.4%
- 2–010.6%
Recent form
Be'sat Kermanshah
- 2026-10-05T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Naft Bandar Abbas · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-29T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Mes Rafsanjan · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Havadar · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Naft Gachsaran · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-16T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Pars Jonoubi JAM · 1-2 (L)
Mes Soongoun
- 2026-10-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Shahin Bandar Ameri · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-12T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Niroye Zamini · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Shenavarsazi Qeshm · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-28T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Mes Kerman · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Mes Rafsanjan · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-09T14:00:00.000Z · Be'sat Kermanshah 1-0 Mes Soongoun (Azadegan League)
- 2025-11-08T12:00:00.000Z · Be'sat Kermanshah 0-1 Mes Soongoun (Azadegan League)
- 2025-04-05T12:30:00.000Z · Be'sat Kermanshah 1-1 Mes Soongoun (Azadegan League)
- 2024-11-10T11:45:00.000Z · Be'sat Kermanshah 4-2 Mes Soongoun (Azadegan League)
Azadegan League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mes Rafsanjan | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 2 | Pars Jonoubi JAM | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| 3 | Ario Eslamshahr | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 4 | Shenavarsazi Qeshm | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Saipa | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 6 | Naft Masjed Soleyman | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | Fard Alborz | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | Mes Soongoun | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 9 | Be'sat Kermanshah | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Novin Ahvaz | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Naft Gachsaran | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 12 | Shahin Bandar Ameri | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Naft Bandar Abbas | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 6 |
| 14 | Niroye Zamini | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 15 | Mes Kerman | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | Havadar | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Be'sat Kermanshah win, at 46.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 24%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.