Be1 NFA vs Atmosfera Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.79 expected goals for Be1 NFA and 1.10 for Atmosfera, a combined total of 2.89. That distribution gives Be1 NFA the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Be1 NFA win

53.7% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.79 – 1.10

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Be1 NFA home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atmosfera away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Be1 NFA to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 23% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.79 goals for Be1 NFA and 1.10 for Atmosfera, a combined 2.89 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Be1 NFA win54%

Draw23%

Atmosfera win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

46%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–110.9%
1–09.9%
2–19.8%
2–08.9%
0–16.1%

Recent form

Be1 NFA

2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Tauras · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-16T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Neptūną Klaipėda · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-09T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Dainava · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-18T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Transinvest 2 · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FA Šiauliai II · 2-0 (W)

Atmosfera

2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs BFA · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Babrungas · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Tauras · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Neptūną Klaipėda · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Dainava · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1 Lyga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Babrungas	28	22	4	2	39	70
2	Minija	27	22	1	4	53	67
3	Be1 NFA	27	18	3	6	21	57
4	Žalgiris II	28	15	4	9	8	49
5	BFA	28	14	4	10	1	46
6	Tauras	27	13	5	9	11	44
7	Dainava	28	12	8	8	11	44
8	Neptūną Klaipėda	28	14	2	12	-2	44
9	Atmosfera	27	10	7	10	8	37
10	Jonava	28	8	6	14	-7	30
11	Garliava	28	8	5	15	-3	29
12	Kauno Žalgiris II	28	8	2	18	-21	26
13	Hegelmann II	28	8	2	18	-29	26
14	Transinvest 2	27	7	4	16	-27	25
15	FA Šiauliai II	27	4	6	17	-30	18
16	Ekranas	28	5	3	20	-33	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Be1 NFA win, at 53.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.