Be1 NFA vs Hegelmann II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.84 expected goals for Be1 NFA and 0.92 for Hegelmann II, a combined total of 3.76. That distribution gives Be1 NFA the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Be1 NFA win

76.7% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.84 – 0.92

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Be1 NFA home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Be1 NFA to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 77% / 14% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.84 goals for Be1 NFA and 0.92 for Hegelmann II, a combined 3.76 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 72% and both teams to score at 57%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Match result (1X2)

Be1 NFA win77%

Draw14%

Hegelmann II win9%

Double chance 1X

91%

Double chance 12

86%

Double chance X2

23%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals72%

Over 3.5 goals52%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

2–09.4%
3–08.8%
2–18.7%
3–18.2%
1–06.6%

Recent form

Be1 NFA

2026-09-18T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Transinvest 2 · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FA Šiauliai II · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-04T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Kauno Žalgiris II · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ekranas · 5-0 (W)
2026-08-21T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Garliava · 2-0 (W)

Hegelmann II

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1 Lyga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Minija	26	22	1	3	54	67
2	Babrungas	27	21	4	2	35	67
3	Be1 NFA	26	17	3	6	20	54
4	Žalgiris II	27	14	4	9	6	46
5	Tauras	26	13	5	8	12	44
6	Dainava	27	12	8	7	12	44
7	Neptūną Klaipėda	27	14	2	11	0	44
8	BFA	27	13	4	10	0	43
9	Atmosfera	26	9	7	10	5	34
10	Jonava	27	8	6	13	-4	30
11	Garliava	27	8	5	14	-1	29
12	Hegelmann II	27	8	2	17	-25	26
13	Transinvest 2	27	7	4	16	-27	25
14	Kauno Žalgiris II	27	7	2	18	-22	23
15	FA Šiauliai II	27	4	6	17	-30	18
16	Ekranas	27	4	3	20	-35	15

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Be1 NFA win, at 76.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.

A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.